Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

$10 to $20

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Casual + Cozyabout 3.0 times the 19 in 100 base rate55 in 100

1Casual + Cozy55 in 10058 launches 2FMV + Interactive Fiction53 in 10032 launches 3Building + Life Sim53 in 10032 launches 4Adventure + Cozy52 in 10031 launches 5Cozy + Relaxing49 in 10063 launches

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Reset

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Now: FMV, 47 in 100. 166 match.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: FMV, 47 in 100. 125 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: FMV, $81,191 typical. 166 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Now: Crime, $1.5M top 1 in 10. 129 match.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Cozy, 45 in 100. 45 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Simulation, 1,006 launches. 166 match.

Hide one-hit markets40 out Hide small samples103 out

232 of 266 genres have 10+ launches at $10 to $20. Sorted by chance of $100k+, highest first.

Shop Keeper 36 in 100 earned $100k+, from 64 launches at $10 to $20typical $36,662 none

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Genres at $10 to $20, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at $10 to $20the base rate: the row to beat	19 in 100893 of 4,810	$9,226	$248,075	4,810
1	FMV47 in 100 earned $100k+, from 51 launches	47 in 10024 hits	$81,191	$304,089	51	Audience	Pin FMV
2	Cozy45 in 100 earned $100k+, from 131 launches	45 in 10059 hits	$62,342	$971,575	131	none	Pin Cozy
3	Typing9 of 21 launches earned $100k+	9 of 219 hits	$43,313	$515,310	21	Small	Pin Typing
4	Bullet Heaven9 of 22 launches earned $100k+	9 of 229 hits	$19,731	$1,440,409	22	1-hitSmall	Pin Bullet Heaven
5	Extraction Shooter6 of 15 launches earned $100k+	6 of 156 hits	$68,810	$990,944	15	1-hitSmall	Pin Extraction Shooter
6	Music37 in 100 earned $100k+, from 38 launches	37 in 10014 hits	$40,062	$691,394	38	Small	Pin Music
7	Shop Keeper36 in 100 earned $100k+, from 64 launches	36 in 10023 hits	$36,662	$862,682	64	none	Pinned Shop Keeper
8	Open World Survival Craft35 in 100 earned $100k+, from 62 launches	35 in 10022 hits	$47,961	$819,275	62	none	Pin Open World Survival Craft
9	Online Co-Op35 in 100 earned $100k+, from 177 launches	35 in 10062 hits	$38,456	$901,536	177	none	Pin Online Co-Op
10	Co-op34 in 100 earned $100k+, from 198 launches	34 in 10067 hits	$27,523	$901,536	198	none	Pin Co-op
11	Bullet Time5 of 15 launches earned $100k+	5 of 155 hits	$14,267	$371,199	15	Small	Pin Bullet Time
12	Heist4 of 12 launches earned $100k+	4 of 124 hits	$47,551	$1,793,374	12	1-hitSmall	Pin Heist
13	Lovecraftian33 in 100 earned $100k+, from 52 launches	33 in 10017 hits	$26,042	$281,334	52	Audience	Pin Lovecraftian
14	Building32 in 100 earned $100k+, from 258 launches	32 in 10083 hits	$26,551	$565,502	258	none	Pin Building
15	Swordplay7 of 22 launches earned $100k+	7 of 227 hits	$17,001	$411,547	22	1-hitSmall	Pin Swordplay
16	Automation32 in 100 earned $100k+, from 85 launches	32 in 10027 hits	$31,406	$1,021,709	85	1-hit	Pin Automation
17	Life Sim31 in 100 earned $100k+, from 267 launches	31 in 10084 hits	$31,406	$395,032	267	none	Pin Life Sim
18	Wholesome31 in 100 earned $100k+, from 55 launches	31 in 10017 hits	$42,987	$267,122	55	none	Pin Wholesome
19	Gambling4 of 13 launches earned $100k+	4 of 134 hits	$4,735	$1,095,533	13	Small	Pin Gambling
20	Sandbox31 in 100 earned $100k+, from 388 launches	31 in 100119 hits	$26,551	$520,165	388	none	Pin Sandbox
21	Dark Humor30 in 100 earned $100k+, from 83 launches	30 in 10025 hits	$13,923	$515,310	83	none	Pin Dark Humor
22	Inventory Management30 in 100 earned $100k+, from 70 launches	30 in 10021 hits	$24,284	$766,093	70	none	Pin Inventory Management
23	Time Travel6 of 20 launches earned $100k+	6 of 206 hits	$13,111	$399,402	20	1-hitSmallAudience	Pin Time Travel
24	Crime30 in 100 earned $100k+, from 57 launches	30 in 10017 hits	$13,762	$1,455,227	57	1-hit	Pin Crime
25	Management30 in 100 earned $100k+, from 360 launches	30 in 100107 hits	$26,717	$409,789	360	none	Pin Management

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 232 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.