Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Capitalism + Incrementalabout 13 times expected at its prices14 in 100

1Capitalism + Incremental14 in 10050 launches 2Casual + Desktop Companion28 in 10047 launches 3Desktop Companion + Idler25 in 10064 launches 4Desktop Companion + Relaxing30 in 10043 launches 5Comedy + Memes10 in 10049 launches

Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Last 18 months

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Only launches from the last 18 months. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Last 18 months Reset

The Last 18 months lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 149 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Open World Survival Craft, $25,194 typical. 238 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: FMV, 25 in 100. 83 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Strategy, 3,128 launches. 238 match.

Hide one-hit markets51 out Hide small samples65 out

266 of 266 genres have 10+ launches at any price, Last 18 months. Sorted by chance of $100k+, highest first.

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Genres at any price, Last 18 months, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, Last 18 monthsthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 161,804 of 29,637	$606	not computed	29,637
1	Extraction Shooter6 of 19 launches earned $100k+	6 of 196 hits	$37,640	not computed	19	1-hitSmall	Pin Extraction Shooter
2	Rome5 of 16 launches earned $100k+	5 of 165 hits	$2,003	not computed	16	Small	Pin Rome
3	Open World Survival Craft30 in 100 earned $100k+, from 53 launches	30 in 10016 hits	$25,194	not computed	53	none	Pin Open World Survival Craft
4	MMORPG4 of 14 launches earned $100k+	4 of 144 hits	$16,665	not computed	14	1-hitSmallAudience	Pin MMORPG
5	Organizing6 of 23 launches earned $100k+	6 of 236 hits	$8,920	not computed	23	Small	Pin Organizing
6	World War II26 in 100 earned $100k+, from 35 launches	26 in 1009 hits	$2,647	not computed	35	Small	Pin World War II
7	Naval7 of 28 launches earned $100k+	7 of 287 hits	$9,310	not computed	28	Small	Pin Naval
8	FMV25 in 100 earned $100k+, from 114 launches	25 in 10028 hits	$15,865	not computed	114	Audience	Pin FMV
9	Bikes4 of 18 launches earned $100k+	4 of 184 hits	$4,370	not computed	18	Small	Pin Bikes
10	Base Building21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 326 launches	21 in 10067 hits	$4,209	not computed	326	none	Pin Base Building
11	Horses20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 30 launches	20 in 1006 hits	$4,010	not computed	30	Small	Pin Horses
12	Co-op18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 428 launches	18 in 10079 hits	$3,641	not computed	428	none	Pin Co-op
13	Co-op Campaign18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 57 launches	18 in 10010 hits	$2,122	not computed	57	1-hit	Pin Co-op Campaign
14	Online Co-Op17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 439 launches	17 in 10073 hits	$3,641	not computed	439	none	Pin Online Co-Op
15	Desktop Companion16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 61 launches	16 in 10010 hits	$6,568	not computed	61	Audience	Pin Desktop Companion
16	Building16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 482 launches	16 in 10076 hits	$2,790	not computed	482	none	Pin Building
17	Fighting16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 51 launches	16 in 1008 hits	$1,920	not computed	51	1-hit	Pin Fighting
18	Fishing15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 100 launches	15 in 10015 hits	$1,819	not computed	100	Audience	Pin Fishing
19	Music15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 80 launches	15 in 10012 hits	$2,828	not computed	80	none	Pin Music
20	Heist3 of 20 launches earned $100k+	3 of 203 hits	$10,966	not computed	20	1-hitSmall	Pin Heist
21	Naval Combat3 of 20 launches earned $100k+	3 of 203 hits	$810	not computed	20	Small	Pin Naval Combat
22	Open World15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 474 launches	15 in 10071 hits	$1,943	not computed	474	none	Pin Open World
23	Vehicular Combat15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 82 launches	15 in 10012 hits	$1,214	not computed	82	none	Pin Vehicular Combat
24	Gothic15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 41 launches	15 in 1006 hits	$1,618	not computed	41	1-hitSmall	Pin Gothic
25	Crafting14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 433 launches	14 in 10062 hits	$2,023	not computed	433	none	Pin Crafting

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 266 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.