Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Genres 1 Oct
Of 264 genres with 30+ launches at any price, West-facing view, 154 beat the 1 in 16 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 192 under $5, 42 in 100 at $20 to $40.154 of 264 genres beat the 1 in 16 base rate.154 beat the base rate.
Cohort median $606
Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.
Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.
Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewThe West-facing view lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.
264 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at any price, West-facing view. 154 match the search and chips. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.
| Rank# | Genre | Chance of $100k+ | Typical year | Top 1 in 10 | Launches | Markers | Pin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games at any price, West-facing viewthe base rate: the row to beat | 1 in 161,804 of 29,637 | $606 | not computed | 29,637 | |||
| 1 | Action RTS1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 211 launches | 1 in 1613 hits | $526 | not computed | 211 | 1-hit | Pin Action RTS |
| 2 | Strategy1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 4,988 launches | 1 in 16308 hits | $545 | not computed | 4,988 | none | Pin Strategy |
| 3 | Dragons1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 97 launches | 1 in 166 hits | $849 | not computed | 97 | 1-hit | Pin Dragons |
| 4 | Third-Person Shooter1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 528 launches | 1 in 1633 hits | $323 | not computed | 528 | none | Pin Third-Person Shooter |
| 5 | Zombies1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 463 launches | 1 in 1629 hits | $526 | not computed | 463 | Audience | Pin Zombies |
| 6 | Auto Battler1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 438 launches | 1 in 1628 hits | $1,271 | not computed | 438 | none | Pin Auto Battler |
| 7 | Voxel1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 125 launches | 1 in 168 hits | $728 | not computed | 125 | Audience | Pin Voxel |
| 8 | Strategy RPG1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 484 launches | 1 in 1631 hits | $607 | not computed | 484 | none | Pin Strategy RPG |
| 9 | Time Management1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 812 launches | 1 in 1553 hits | $607 | not computed | 812 | none | Pin Time Management |
| 10 | JRPG1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 534 launches | 1 in 1535 hits | $1,214 | not computed | 534 | none | Pin JRPG |
| 11 | Dystopian 1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 197 launches | 1 in 1513 hits | $808 | not computed | 197 | none | Pin Dystopian |
| 12 | LGBTQ+1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 331 launches | 1 in 1522 hits | $2,428 | not computed | 331 | none | Pin LGBTQ+ |
| 13 | Turn-Based Tactics1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 1,004 launches | 1 in 1567 hits | $707 | not computed | 1,004 | Audience | Pin Turn-Based Tactics |
| 14 | VR1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 520 launches | 1 in 1535 hits | $970 | not computed | 520 | none | Pin VR |
| 15 | Time Travel1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 73 launches | 1 in 155 hits | $566 | not computed | 73 | 1-hitAudience | Pin Time Travel |
| 16 | Political Sim1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 116 launches | 1 in 158 hits | $1,294 | not computed | 116 | Audience | Pin Political Sim |
| 17 | Turn-Based Strategy1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 1,098 launches | 1 in 1476 hits | $909 | not computed | 1,098 | Audience | Pin Turn-Based Strategy |
| 18 | Typing1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 230 launches | 1 in 1416 hits | $364 | not computed | 230 | none | Pin Typing |
| 19 | Robots1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 242 launches | 1 in 1417 hits | $363 | not computed | 242 | 1-hitAudience | Pin Robots |
| 20 | Roguelike1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 2,355 launches | 1 in 14166 hits | $1,010 | not computed | 2,355 | none | Pin Roguelike |
| 21 | Dark Comedy1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 198 launches | 1 in 1414 hits | $1,416 | not computed | 198 | none | Pin Dark Comedy |
| 22 | Romance1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 550 launches | 1 in 1439 hits | $2,265 | not computed | 550 | none | Pin Romance |
| 23 | Party-Based RPG1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 418 launches | 1 in 1430 hits | $1,011 | not computed | 418 | Audience | Pin Party-Based RPG |
| 24 | eSports1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 152 launches | 1 in 1411 hits | $607 | not computed | 152 | 1-hit | Pin eSports |
| 25 | Otome1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 82 launches | 1 in 146 hits | $3,643 | not computed | 82 | none | Pin Otome |
Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.