Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Genres 1 Oct
Of 238 genres with 30+ launches at any price, Last 18 months, 130 beat the 1 in 16 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 192 under $5, 42 in 100 at $20 to $40.130 of 238 genres beat the 1 in 16 base rate.130 beat the base rate.
Cohort median $606
Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.
Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.
Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewThe Last 18 months lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.
238 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Last 18 months. 106 match the search and chips. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.
| Rank# | Genre | Chance of $100k+ | Typical year | Top 1 in 10 | Launches | Markers | Pin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games at any price, Last 18 monthsthe base rate: the row to beat | 1 in 161,804 of 29,637 | $606 | not computed | 29,637 | |||
| 1 | Third-Person Shooter1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 287 launches | 1 in 1618 hits | $364 | not computed | 287 | none | Pin Third-Person Shooter |
| 2 | Roguelike1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 1,504 launches | 1 in 1695 hits | $809 | not computed | 1,504 | none | Pin Roguelike |
| 3 | Survival Horror1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 554 launches | 1 in 1635 hits | $1,010 | not computed | 554 | none | Pin Survival Horror |
| 4 | Turn-Based Tactics1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 632 launches | 1 in 1640 hits | $485 | not computed | 632 | Audience | Pin Turn-Based Tactics |
| 5 | Boomer Shooter1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 158 launches | 1 in 1610 hits | $484 | not computed | 158 | none | Pin Boomer Shooter |
| 6 | 1990's1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 419 launches | 1 in 1627 hits | $566 | not computed | 419 | none | Pin 1990's |
| 7 | Cooking1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 201 launches | 1 in 1513 hits | $1,415 | not computed | 201 | none | Pin Cooking |
| 8 | CRPG1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 152 launches | 1 in 1510 hits | $606 | not computed | 152 | Audience | Pin CRPG |
| 9 | Alternate History1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 106 launches | 1 in 157 hits | $607 | not computed | 106 | Audience | Pin Alternate History |
| 10 | Interactive Fiction1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 817 launches | 1 in 1555 hits | $787 | not computed | 817 | none | Pin Interactive Fiction |
| 11 | Strategy RPG1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 339 launches | 1 in 1523 hits | $607 | not computed | 339 | none | Pin Strategy RPG |
| 12 | VR1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 249 launches | 1 in 1517 hits | $809 | not computed | 249 | none | Pin VR |
| 13 | Action RPG1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 696 launches | 1 in 1548 hits | $425 | not computed | 696 | none | Pin Action RPG |
| 14 | JRPG1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 333 launches | 1 in 1423 hits | $1,617 | not computed | 333 | none | Pin JRPG |
| 15 | Grand Strategy1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 130 launches | 1 in 149 hits | $2,182 | not computed | 130 | 1-hit | Pin Grand Strategy |
| 16 | Spectacle fighter1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 100 launches | 1 in 147 hits | $810 | not computed | 100 | none | Pin Spectacle fighter |
| 17 | eSports1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 85 launches | 1 in 146 hits | $425 | not computed | 85 | 1-hit | Pin eSports |
| 18 | Roguelite1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 1,402 launches | 1 in 1499 hits | $909 | not computed | 1,402 | none | Pin Roguelite |
| 19 | Satire1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 70 launches | 1 in 145 hits | $1,213 | not computed | 70 | Audience | Pin Satire |
| 20 | RPG1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 2,257 launches | 1 in 14162 hits | $607 | not computed | 2,257 | none | Pin RPG |
| 21 | Wargame1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 234 launches | 1 in 1417 hits | $808 | not computed | 234 | none | Pin Wargame |
| 22 | Simulation1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 3,070 launches | 1 in 14225 hits | $971 | not computed | 3,070 | none | Pin Simulation |
| 23 | Party-Based RPG1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 258 launches | 1 in 1419 hits | $728 | not computed | 258 | Audience | Pin Party-Based RPG |
| 24 | Mythology1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 95 launches | 1 in 147 hits | $1,332 | not computed | 95 | 1-hit | Pin Mythology |
| 25 | Auto Battler1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 271 launches | 1 in 1420 hits | $1,112 | not computed | 271 | none | Pin Auto Battler |
Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.