Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Genres 1 Oct
Of 263 genres with 30+ launches at any price, Without the breakout, 149 beat the 1 in 16 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 192 under $5, 42 in 100 at $20 to $40.149 of 263 genres beat the 1 in 16 base rate.149 beat the base rate.
Cohort median $606
Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.
Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.
Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewThe Without the breakout lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.
263 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Without the breakout. 150 match the search and chips. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.
| Rank# | Genre | Chance of $100k+ | Typical year | Top 1 in 10 | Launches | Markers | Pin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games at any price, Without the breakoutthe base rate: the row to beat | 1 in 161,804 of 29,637 | $606 | not computed | 29,637 | |||
| 1 | Chessnone of 59 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $404 | not computed | 59 | none | Pin Chess |
| 2 | 6DOFnone of 56 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $364 | not computed | 56 | none | Pin 6DOF |
| 3 | Hidden Object1 in 71 earned $100k+, from 1,766 launches | 1 in 7125 hits | $541 | not computed | 1,766 | none | Pin Hidden Object |
| 4 | 3D Fighter1 in 69 earned $100k+, from 345 launches | 1 in 695 hits | $202 | not computed | 345 | none | Pin 3D Fighter |
| 5 | Precision Platformer1 in 63 earned $100k+, from 947 launches | 1 in 6315 hits | $303 | not computed | 947 | none | Pin Precision Platformer |
| 6 | Score Attack1 in 63 earned $100k+, from 629 launches | 1 in 6310 hits | $202 | not computed | 629 | none | Pin Score Attack |
| 7 | Aliens1 in 58 earned $100k+, from 292 launches | 1 in 585 hits | $242 | not computed | 292 | none | Pin Aliens |
| 8 | Arena Shooter1 in 54 earned $100k+, from 542 launches | 1 in 5410 hits | $252 | not computed | 542 | Audience | Pin Arena Shooter |
| 9 | Shoot 'Em Up1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 927 launches | 1 in 4919 hits | $282 | not computed | 927 | none | Pin Shoot 'Em Up |
| 10 | Mystery Dungeon1 in 45 earned $100k+, from 271 launches | 1 in 456 hits | $303 | not computed | 271 | Audience | Pin Mystery Dungeon |
| 11 | Logic1 in 43 earned $100k+, from 990 launches | 1 in 4323 hits | $303 | not computed | 990 | none | Pin Logic |
| 12 | Arcade1 in 41 earned $100k+, from 4,044 launches | 1 in 4198 hits | $243 | not computed | 4,044 | none | Pin Arcade |
| 13 | 2D Fighter1 in 38 earned $100k+, from 461 launches | 1 in 3812 hits | $121 | not computed | 461 | Audience | Pin 2D Fighter |
| 14 | Puzzle Platformer1 in 37 earned $100k+, from 1,193 launches | 1 in 3732 hits | $243 | not computed | 1,193 | Audience | Pin Puzzle Platformer |
| 15 | 2D Platformer1 in 36 earned $100k+, from 2,737 launches | 1 in 3675 hits | $202 | not computed | 2,737 | none | Pin 2D Platformer |
| 16 | Top-Down Shooter1 in 36 earned $100k+, from 910 launches | 1 in 3625 hits | $243 | not computed | 910 | Audience | Pin Top-Down Shooter |
| 17 | Perma Death1 in 35 earned $100k+, from 453 launches | 1 in 3513 hits | $606 | not computed | 453 | none | Pin Perma Death |
| 18 | Hero Shooter1 in 34 earned $100k+, from 136 launches | 1 in 344 hits | $202 | not computed | 136 | none | Pin Hero Shooter |
| 19 | Space Sim1 in 30 earned $100k+, from 242 launches | 1 in 308 hits | $364 | not computed | 242 | Audience | Pin Space Sim |
| 20 | Tabletop1 in 30 earned $100k+, from 567 launches | 1 in 3019 hits | $301 | not computed | 567 | none | Pin Tabletop |
| 21 | Parkour1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 409 launches | 1 in 2914 hits | $363 | not computed | 409 | Audience | Pin Parkour |
| 22 | 3D Platformer1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 1,723 launches | 1 in 2959 hits | $242 | not computed | 1,723 | none | Pin 3D Platformer |
| 23 | Party Game1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 262 launches | 1 in 299 hits | $647 | not computed | 262 | none | Pin Party Game |
| 24 | Dialogue Heavy1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 320 launches | 1 in 2911 hits | $970 | not computed | 320 | none | Pin Dialogue Heavy |
| 25 | Walking Simulator1 in 29 earned $100k+, from 1,602 launches | 1 in 2956 hits | $1,007 | not computed | 1,602 | none | Pin Walking Simulator |
Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.