Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Surreal + Arcade: a typical launch earns $202 in its first year

That is the median of 33 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 2 of 45 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 1.6 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases fell 54% on the year before: 16 against 35.

One game dominates the figure

Price: $202
Price vs a year earlier: −80.0%
Releases, 12 months: 16
Upcoming games: 56
Games on the store: 205

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Surreal + Arcade on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 5 or more wishlist-ranked upcoming games.
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. One game dominates the figure	1.09xhits against expected	0.80x to 1.89x	45 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#2,259 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 20 or more releases in each 12-month period.
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 1,000 reviews in each window.

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 2
Expected: 1.6

Launches: 45
Hit rate: 4.4%0.0% to 10.4%
Expected rate: 3.5%
Against expected: 1.09x0.80x to 1.89x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

45 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $403
Top tenth: $14,841

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 16
Prior 12 months: 35

Change: −54%

Parent tags

SurrealNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
ArcadeGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Surreal

pairs with Surreal

Surreal + Mystery$4,52440 launches priced, 57 releases in 12 months
Surreal + Story Rich$3,23865 launches priced, 92 releases in 12 months
Surreal + Psychological Horror$2,906127 launches priced, 153 releases in 12 months
Surreal + Exploration$2,424100 launches priced, 135 releases in 12 months
Surreal + Walking Simulator$1,81971 launches priced, 118 releases in 12 months
Horror + Surreal$1,799122 launches priced, 163 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Surreal

More with Arcade

pairs with Arcade

Co-op + Arcade$1,37646 launches priced, 69 releases in 12 months
Arcade + Twin Stick Shooter$1,01169 launches priced, 100 releases in 12 months
Arcade + Female Protagonist$96168 launches priced, 82 releases in 12 months
Arcade + Local Co-Op$96050 launches priced, 58 releases in 12 months
Arcade + Anime$91052 launches priced, 96 releases in 12 months
Arcade + Difficult$80679 launches priced, 145 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Arcade

Verdicts

in development

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