Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Puzzle + Mystery: a typical launch earns $1,293 in its first year

That is the median of 283 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 45 of 535 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 39.1 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 22% on the year before: 389 against 320.

Price: $1,293
Price vs a year earlier: +3.1%
Releases, 12 months: 389
Upcoming games: 945
Games on the store: 2,694

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Puzzle + Mystery on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.96%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.58% to 1.69%	107 ranked of 945 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#234 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	1.14xhits against expected	0.91x to 1.42x	535 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#2,010 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	+21%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	+2% to +41%	120 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#724 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	+8%review growth against same-age games	0% to +16%	120 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#399 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 45
Expected: 39.1

Launches: 535
Hit rate: 8.4%4.2% to 10.4%
Expected rate: 7.3%
Against expected: 1.14x0.91x to 1.42x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

535 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $40
Median: $1,213
Top tenth: $63,229

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 389
Prior 12 months: 320

Change: +22%
Against Steam: −11%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

PuzzleGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
MysteryNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Puzzle

pairs with Puzzle

Puzzle + Open World$3,68033 launches priced, 31 releases in 12 months
Metroidvania + Puzzle$2,32437 launches priced, 46 releases in 12 months
Puzzle + Visual Novel$2,10397 launches priced, 167 releases in 12 months
Puzzle + Story Rich$2,000292 launches priced, 408 releases in 12 months
Puzzle + Co-op$1,92037 launches priced, 77 releases in 12 months
Puzzle + Dark Humor$1,87830 launches priced, 50 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Puzzle

More with Mystery

pairs with Mystery

Mystery + Choices Matter$6,00949 launches priced, 114 releases in 12 months
Anime + Mystery$5,55743 launches priced, 65 releases in 12 months
Mystery + Female Protagonist$5,30753 launches priced, 76 releases in 12 months
Detective + Mystery$5,207106 launches priced, 184 releases in 12 months
Cinematic + Mystery$4,60234 launches priced, 41 releases in 12 months
Surreal + Mystery$4,52440 launches priced, 57 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Mystery

Verdicts

in development

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