Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
Puzzle + Linear: a typical launch earns $485 in its first year
That is the median of 162 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 3 of 337 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 13.1 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 5% on the year before: 212 against 202.
- One game dominates the figure
- Price
- $485 median of 162 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- +49.9% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 212 202 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 337 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 1,379 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. | 0.03%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 0.02% to 0.04% | 9 ranked of 337 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #3,081 of 7,193pairs on this board |
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.
| 0.37xhits against expected | 0.26x to 0.65x | 337 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #5,765 of 6,324pairs on this board |
| Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. | Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 20 or more releases in each 12-month period. | |||
| Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. | Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 1,000 reviews in each window. | |||
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 337
- Hit rate
- 0.9%0.3% to 2.3%
- Expected rate
- 3.9%
- Against expected
- 0.37x0.26x to 0.65x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
337 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $0
- Median
- $323
- Top tenth
- $4,853
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- +5%
Parent tags
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
- Crisol: Theater of Idols (opens the Steam store)2026 · 4,137 reviews, 85% positiveest. $1.5M
- Mindlock - The Apartment (opens the Steam store)2024 · 632 reviews, 95% positiveest. $192k
- HER TREES : PUZZLE DREAM (opens the Steam store)2026 · 1,960 reviews, 97% positiveest. $158k
- While Waiting (opens the Steam store)2025 · 234 reviews, 75% positiveest. $95k
- MotionRec (opens the Steam store)2025 · 436 reviews, 99% positiveest. $88k
- We Escaped a Twisted Game (opens the Steam store)2025 · 801 reviews, 94% positiveest. $81k
- The House of Da Vinci VR (opens the Steam store)2024 · 127 reviews, 92% positiveest. $64k
- Tobla - Divine Path (opens the Steam store)2024 · 205 reviews, 92% positiveest. $33k
More with Puzzle
pairs with Puzzle- Puzzle + Open World$3,68033 launches priced, 31 releases in 12 months
- Metroidvania + Puzzle$2,32437 launches priced, 46 releases in 12 months
- Puzzle + Visual Novel$2,10397 launches priced, 167 releases in 12 months
- Puzzle + Story Rich$2,000292 launches priced, 408 releases in 12 months
- Puzzle + Co-op$1,92037 launches priced, 77 releases in 12 months
- Puzzle + Dark Humor$1,87830 launches priced, 50 releases in 12 months
More with Linear
pairs with Linear- Walking Simulator + Linear$1,56566 launches priced, 92 releases in 12 months
- Psychological Horror + Linear$1,11182 launches priced, 104 releases in 12 months
- Story Rich + Linear$91095 launches priced, 129 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Linear$84831 launches priced, 69 releases in 12 months
- Horror + Linear$808121 launches priced, 153 releases in 12 months
- Female Protagonist + Linear$79940 launches priced, 57 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
in developmentGMD Verdicts will be a written read on a niche, built from the same data and the published method on this site. Join the early list and we will email you when the first ones are ready. Nothing on this page is held back while you wait.