Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Open World + Sandbox
Open World + Sandbox
Games tagged both Open World and Sandbox: 202 indie paid launches, 62 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Open World + Sandbox priced $10 to $20.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Open World + Sandbox beats both its tags: 42.4 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 29.3 in 100 for Open World and 33.7 in 100 for Sandbox.
That is about 2.1 times the 20.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 85 games tagged both Open World and Sandbox priced $10 to $20. 42.4 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 23.6 in 100 for Open World-only games and 31.0 in 100 for Sandbox-only games, so games with both tags did better than games with either tag alone.
Both: 85 games priced $10 to $20; 42.4 in 100 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 92 in 100 · $10k+ 78 in 100 · $100k+ 42 in 100.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 85 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Open World + Sandbox holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view187 of 202 launches | Without the breakout201 of 202 launches | Last 18 months55 of 202 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 20262 hits | 18756 hits | 20161 hits | 5516 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 30.7 in 100 | 29.9 in 100 | 30.3 in 100 | 29.1 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $12,893top tenth $916,875+ | $12,893 | $12,491 | under 100 launches |
| Chance against standard | the base | -2.4%0.7 fewer in 100 | -1.1%0.3 fewer in 100 | -5.2%1.6 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | 0.0%no change | -3.1%$402 less | under 100 launches |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Open World and Sandbox, 12 to 36 months old: 202 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 15 of 202 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Soulmask (10.9% of the money): 201 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 55 of 202.
Open World holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Open World | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view820 of 858 launches | Without the breakout857 of 858 launches | Last 18 months210 of 858 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 858163 hits | 820156 hits | 857162 hits | 21037 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 19.0 in 100 | 19.0 in 100 | 18.9 in 100 | 17.6 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,181top tenth $483,712+ | $2,280 | $2,150 | $2,601 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +0.1%no change | -0.5%0.1 fewer in 100 | -7.3%1.4 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +4.5%$99 more | -1.4%$31 less | +19.3%$420 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Open World, 12 to 36 months old: 858 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 38 of 858 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Palworld (29.6% of the money): 857 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 210 of 858.
Sandbox is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.
| Sandbox | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,187 of 1,229 launches | Without the breakout1,228 of 1,229 launches | Last 18 months380 of 1,229 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,229210 hits | 1,187198 hits | 1,228209 hits | 38062 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 17.1 in 100 | 16.7 in 100 | 17.0 in 100 | 16.3 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,212top tenth $299,853+ | $2,212 | $2,212 | $1,950 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -2.4%0.4 fewer in 100 | -0.4%0.1 fewer in 100 | -4.5%0.8 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -11.8%$262 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Moves the answer | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Sandbox, 12 to 36 months old: 1,229 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 42 of 1,229 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (22.4% of the money): 1,228 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 380 of 1,229.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Open World + Sandbox moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
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