Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Wholesome: a typical launch earns $1,117 in its first year

That is the median of 132 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 18 of 253 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 7.0 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 53% on the year before: 229 against 150.

Price: $1,117
Price vs a year earlier: −38.8%
Releases, 12 months: 229
Upcoming games: 309
Games on the store: 871

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Wholesome on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.25%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.17% to 0.34%	43 ranked of 311 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#915 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	2.10xhits against expected	1.53x to 2.89x	253 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#118 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	−18%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−30% to −5%	98 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,951 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	−9%review growth against same-age games	−14% to −3%	98 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,236 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 18
Expected: 7.0

Launches: 253
Hit rate: 7.1%4.6% to 9.6%
Expected rate: 2.8%
Against expected: 2.10x1.53x to 2.89x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

253 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $241
Median: $1,169
Top tenth: $38,713

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 229
Prior 12 months: 150

Change: +53%
Against Steam: +11%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
WholesomeNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Wholesome

pairs with Wholesome

Cozy + Wholesome$1,797128 launches priced, 213 releases in 12 months
Point & Click + Wholesome$1,77343 launches priced, 69 releases in 12 months
Relaxing + Wholesome$1,572131 launches priced, 208 releases in 12 months
Cute + Wholesome$1,454129 launches priced, 189 releases in 12 months
Cats + Wholesome$88478 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Puzzle + Wholesome$865107 launches priced, 151 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Wholesome

Verdicts

in development

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