Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Top-Down Shooter: a typical launch earns $81 in its first year

That is the median of 99 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 1 of 205 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 3.6 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 30% on the year before: 165 against 127.

Price: $81
Price vs a year earlier: −63.3%
Releases, 12 months: 165
Upcoming games: 257
Games on the store: 1,031

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Top-Down Shooter on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 5 or more wishlist-ranked upcoming games.
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	0.61xhits against expected	0.49x to 1.12x	205 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#5,226 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 20 or more releases in each 12-month period.
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 1,000 reviews in each window.

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 1
Expected: 3.6

Launches: 205
Hit rate: 0.5%0.0% to 1.6%
Expected rate: 1.8%
Against expected: 0.61x0.49x to 1.12x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

205 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $81
Top tenth: $2,193

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 165
Prior 12 months: 127

Change: +30%

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
Top-Down ShooterGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Top-Down Shooter

pairs with Top-Down Shooter

Roguelite + Top-Down Shooter$1,010116 launches priced, 189 releases in 12 months
Top-Down Shooter + Twin Stick Shooter$90973 launches priced, 113 releases in 12 months
Top-Down Shooter + Bullet Hell$809179 launches priced, 260 releases in 12 months
Action RPG + Top-Down Shooter$72833 launches priced, 39 releases in 12 months
Top-Down Shooter + Action Roguelike$687150 launches priced, 242 releases in 12 months
Roguelike + Top-Down Shooter$443111 launches priced, 155 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Top-Down Shooter

Verdicts

in development

GMD Verdicts will be a written read on a niche, built from the same data and the published method on this site. Join the early list and we will email you when the first ones are ready. Nothing on this page is held back while you wait.