Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Top-Down: a typical launch earns $121 in its first year

That is the median of 330 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 5 of 662 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 15.9 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 49% on the year before: 605 against 407.

Price: $121
Price vs a year earlier: −40.2%
Releases, 12 months: 605
Upcoming games: 962
Games on the store: 3,210

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Top-Down on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.14%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.09% to 0.18%	23 ranked of 966 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#1,390 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	0.42xhits against expected	0.29x to 0.70x	662 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#5,728 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. One game dominates the figure	−8%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−21% to +7%	36 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,671 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. One game dominates the figure Listed after unflagged rows on this board	0%review growth against same-age games	−10% to +9%	36 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,962 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 5
Expected: 15.9

Launches: 662
Hit rate: 0.8%0.4% to 2.1%
Expected rate: 2.4%
Against expected: 0.42x0.29x to 0.70x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

661 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $160
Top tenth: $3,641

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 605
Prior 12 months: 407

Change: +49%
Against Steam: +9%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
Top-DownNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Top-Down

pairs with Top-Down

Wargame + Top-Down$1,70031 launches priced, 51 releases in 12 months
City Builder + Top-Down$1,55732 launches priced, 37 releases in 12 months
Top-Down + Female Protagonist$1,09231 launches priced, 50 releases in 12 months
Twin Stick Shooter + Top-Down$1,01140 launches priced, 58 releases in 12 months
Roguelike + Top-Down$707143 launches priced, 271 releases in 12 months
RTS + Top-Down$68543 launches priced, 75 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Top-Down

Verdicts

in development

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