Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Shooter: a typical launch earns $81 in its first year

That is the median of 274 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 6 of 551 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 14.8 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 8% on the year before: 383 against 354.

One game dominates the figure

Price: $81
Price vs a year earlier: −55.4%
Releases, 12 months: 383
Upcoming games: 669
Games on the store: 2,923

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Shooter on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.09%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.07% to 0.12%	25 ranked of 670 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#1,844 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. One game dominates the figure	0.50xhits against expected	0.34x to 0.81x	551 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#5,585 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. One game dominates the figure	+26%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	+9% to +47%	31 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#595 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. One game dominates the figure Listed after unflagged rows on this board	0%review growth against same-age games	−10% to +9%	31 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,959 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 6
Expected: 14.8

Launches: 551
Hit rate: 1.1%0.4% to 2.0%
Expected rate: 2.7%
Against expected: 0.50x0.34x to 0.81x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

551 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $121
Top tenth: $3,027

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 383
Prior 12 months: 354

Change: +8%
Against Steam: −20%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
ShooterGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Shooter

pairs with Shooter

Shooter + Cyberpunk$2,57936 launches priced, 56 releases in 12 months
Story Rich + Shooter$2,36739 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
Shooter + Online Co-Op$2,19432 launches priced, 60 releases in 12 months
Co-op + Shooter$1,82139 launches priced, 53 releases in 12 months
Shooter + Old School$1,55845 launches priced, 53 releases in 12 months
Shooter + Gore$1,46646 launches priced, 49 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Shooter

Verdicts

in development

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