Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Roguelike: a typical launch earns $323 in its first year

That is the median of 296 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 16 of 635 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 16.8 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 94% on the year before: 672 against 346.

Price: $323
Price vs a year earlier: +34.3%
Releases, 12 months: 672
Upcoming games: 1,249
Games on the store: 2,907

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Roguelike on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.31%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.09% to 0.53%	27 ranked of 1,249 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#747 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	0.96xhits against expected	0.69x to 1.36x	635 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#3,023 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	−46%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−55% to −36%	40 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#2,306 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	−23%review growth against same-age games	−30% to −14%	40 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,564 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 16
Expected: 16.8

Launches: 635
Hit rate: 2.5%1.6% to 5.1%
Expected rate: 2.6%
Against expected: 0.96x0.69x to 1.36x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

635 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $242
Top tenth: $14,240

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 672
Prior 12 months: 346

Change: +94%
Against Steam: +42%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
RoguelikeGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Roguelike

pairs with Roguelike

Roguelike + Bullet Heaven$17,70935 launches priced, 135 releases in 12 months
Roguelike + Roguelike Deckbuilder$8,25299 launches priced, 221 releases in 12 months
Turn-Based + Roguelike$4,45040 launches priced, 64 releases in 12 months
Roguelike + Anime$4,38831 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
Roguelike + Difficult$3,64173 launches priced, 93 releases in 12 months
Roguelike + Auto Battler$3,39375 launches priced, 156 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Roguelike

Verdicts

in development

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