Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Nature: a typical launch earns $323 in its first year

That is the median of 163 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 9 of 296 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 11.2 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 35% on the year before: 267 against 198.

Price: $323
Price vs a year earlier: −33.3%
Releases, 12 months: 267
Upcoming games: 470
Games on the store: 1,467

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Nature on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.11%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.08% to 0.14%	29 ranked of 470 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#1,674 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	0.85xhits against expected	0.58x to 1.29x	296 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#3,792 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	−9%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−23% to +8%	51 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,705 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	−10%review growth against same-age games	−18% to 0%	51 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,288 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 9
Expected: 11.2

Launches: 296
Hit rate: 3.0%1.5% to 6.7%
Expected rate: 3.8%
Against expected: 0.85x0.58x to 1.29x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

296 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $415
Top tenth: $20,176

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 267
Prior 12 months: 198

Change: +35%
Against Steam: −1%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
NatureNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Nature

pairs with Nature

Nature + Cozy$4,65132 launches priced, 73 releases in 12 months
Nature + Idler$1,66633 launches priced, 83 releases in 12 months
Exploration + Nature$1,61878 launches priced, 129 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Nature$1,13283 launches priced, 159 releases in 12 months
Cute + Nature$99986 launches priced, 120 releases in 12 months
Nature + Incremental$99930 launches priced, 50 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Nature

Verdicts

in development

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