Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Hidden Object: a typical launch earns $566 in its first year

That is the median of 470 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 12 of 922 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 36.0 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 10% on the year before: 600 against 546.

Price: $566
Price vs a year earlier: −27.3%
Releases, 12 months: 600
Upcoming games: 608
Games on the store: 3,811

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Hidden Object on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.34%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.20% to 0.48%	42 ranked of 609 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#676 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	0.39xhits against expected	0.27x to 0.57x	922 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#5,758 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	+17%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	+7% to +31%	146 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#837 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	−6%review growth against same-age games	−10% to 0%	146 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,051 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 12
Expected: 36.0

Launches: 922
Hit rate: 1.3%1.0% to 2.8%
Expected rate: 3.9%
Against expected: 0.39x0.27x to 0.57x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

922 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $543
Top tenth: $4,509

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 600
Prior 12 months: 546

Change: +10%
Against Steam: −19%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
Hidden ObjectGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Hidden Object

pairs with Hidden Object

Hidden Object + Detective$1,18352 launches priced, 73 releases in 12 months
Hidden Object + Story Rich$1,155101 launches priced, 94 releases in 12 months
Hidden Object + Visual Novel$1,05038 launches priced, 46 releases in 12 months
Hidden Object + Creature Collector$92239 launches priced, 35 releases in 12 months
Hidden Object + Funny$88938 launches priced, 67 releases in 12 months
Hidden Object + Cats$865105 launches priced, 132 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Hidden Object

Verdicts

in development

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