Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Fantasy: a typical launch earns $364 in its first year

That is the median of 276 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 7 of 557 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 30.6 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 40% on the year before: 486 against 346.

Price: $364
Price vs a year earlier: +43.9%
Releases, 12 months: 486
Upcoming games: 831
Games on the store: 2,965

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Fantasy on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.36%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.25% to 0.49%	36 ranked of 833 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#647 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	0.30xhits against expected	0.20x to 0.47x	557 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#5,793 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	−13%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−26% to +4%	35 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,807 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	−10%review growth against same-age games	−20% to +1%	35 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,294 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 7
Expected: 30.6

Launches: 557
Hit rate: 1.3%0.6% to 3.3%
Expected rate: 5.5%
Against expected: 0.30x0.20x to 0.47x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

557 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $304
Top tenth: $6,538

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 486
Prior 12 months: 346

Change: +40%
Against Steam: +3%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
FantasyNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Fantasy

pairs with Fantasy

Fantasy + Strategy RPG$6,98232 launches priced, 52 releases in 12 months
Fantasy + Tactical RPG$3,23736 launches priced, 43 releases in 12 months
Fantasy + Multiple Endings$3,03445 launches priced, 50 releases in 12 months
Fantasy + Female Protagonist$2,18571 launches priced, 101 releases in 12 months
Fantasy + Character Customization$2,14452 launches priced, 71 releases in 12 months
Fantasy + Dungeon Crawler$1,86172 launches priced, 121 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Fantasy

Verdicts

in development

GMD Verdicts will be a written read on a niche, built from the same data and the published method on this site. Join the early list and we will email you when the first ones are ready. Nothing on this page is held back while you wait.