Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Dialogue Heavy: a typical launch earns $605 in its first year

That is the median of 51 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 4 of 115 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 4.8 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 41% on the year before: 96 against 68.

One game dominates the figure

Price: $605
Price vs a year earlier: −24.9%
Releases, 12 months: 96
Upcoming games: 181
Games on the store: 518

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Dialogue Heavy on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. One game dominates the figure Listed after unflagged rows on this board	0.08%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.03% to 0.17%	13 ranked of 181 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#5,903 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. One game dominates the figure	0.90xhits against expected	0.62x to 1.50x	115 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#3,419 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	−8%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−27% to +18%	24 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,686 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	−6%review growth against same-age games	−16% to +4%	24 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,083 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 4
Expected: 4.8

Launches: 115
Hit rate: 3.5%0.7% to 10.9%
Expected rate: 4.2%
Against expected: 0.90x0.62x to 1.50x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

115 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $605
Top tenth: $35,485

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 96
Prior 12 months: 68

Change: +41%
Against Steam: +2%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
Dialogue HeavyNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Dialogue Heavy

pairs with Dialogue Heavy

Visual Novel + Dialogue Heavy$2,12352 launches priced, 96 releases in 12 months
Adventure + Dialogue Heavy$1,90555 launches priced, 88 releases in 12 months
Story Rich + Dialogue Heavy$1,20848 launches priced, 103 releases in 12 months
Choices Matter + Dialogue Heavy$82744 launches priced, 88 releases in 12 months
2D + Dialogue Heavy$50537 launches priced, 73 releases in 12 months
Interactive Fiction + Dialogue Heavyno price67 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Dialogue Heavy

Verdicts

in development

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