Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + 3D: a typical launch earns $182 in its first year

That is the median of 1,120 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 43 of 2,260 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 84.8 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 35% on the year before: 1,930 against 1,429.

Price: $182
Price vs a year earlier: −25.1%
Releases, 12 months: 1,930
Upcoming games: 3,567
Games on the store: 10,725

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + 3D on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	1.28%share of upcoming wishlist heat	1.04% to 1.56%	160 ranked of 3,570 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#186 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	0.52xhits against expected	0.42x to 0.66x	2,260 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#5,530 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	−6%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−13% to +1%	200 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,627 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	−7%review growth against same-age games	−11% to −2%	200 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,125 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 43
Expected: 84.8

Launches: 2,260
Hit rate: 1.9%1.3% to 2.8%
Expected rate: 3.8%
Against expected: 0.52x0.42x to 0.66x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

2,259 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $202
Top tenth: $6,676

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 1,930
Prior 12 months: 1,429

Change: +35%
Against Steam: −1%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
3DNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with 3D

pairs with 3D

3D + Dark Humor$3,90132 launches priced, 46 releases in 12 months
3D + Cozy$3,23738 launches priced, 91 releases in 12 months
3D + Economy$3,15761 launches priced, 109 releases in 12 months
3D + Management$2,196130 launches priced, 192 releases in 12 months
Story Rich + 3D$2,162144 launches priced, 256 releases in 12 months
3D + Resource Management$2,02434 launches priced, 66 releases in 12 months

Every pair with 3D

Verdicts

in development

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