Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
2D + Mystery: a typical launch earns $810 in its first year
That is the median of 140 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 24 of 270 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 20.9 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 15% on the year before: 180 against 157.
- Price
- $810 median of 140 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- +43.0% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 180 157 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 423 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 1,204 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. | 0.24%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 0.10% to 0.37% | 39 ranked of 423 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #917 of 7,193pairs on this board |
| Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. | 1.13xhits against expected | 0.85x to 1.50x | 270 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #2,050 of 6,324pairs on this board |
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.
| +22%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam | +3% to +53% | 54 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months | #696 of 2,361pairs on this board |
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.
| +1%review growth against same-age games | −7% to +8% | 54 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025 | #1,911 of 2,461pairs on this board |
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 270
- Hit rate
- 8.9%4.0% to 13.2%
- Expected rate
- 7.7%
- Against expected
- 1.13x0.85x to 1.50x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
270 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $0
- Median
- $810
- Top tenth
- $62,935
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- +15%
- Against Steam
- −17%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases
Parent tags
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
- Until Then (opens the Steam store)2024 · 15,814 reviews, 96% positiveest. $6.2M
- Urban Myth Dissolution Center (opens the Steam store)2025 · 5,989 reviews, 88% positiveest. $1.9M
- Enigma of Fear (opens the Steam store)2024 · 3,095 reviews, 95% positiveest. $1.9M
- The Rise of the Golden Idol (opens the Steam store)2024 · 3,797 reviews, 92% positiveest. $1.5M
- Kathy Rain 2: Soothsayer (opens the Steam store)2025 · 1,253 reviews, 96% positiveest. $507k
- Staffer Retro : A Supernatural Mystery Quest (opens the Steam store)2026 · 968 reviews, 89% positiveest. $490k
- Loco Motive (opens the Steam store)2024 · 1,230 reviews, 92% positiveest. $448k
- The Last Gas Station (opens the Steam store)2026 · 1,341 reviews, 87% positiveest. $380k
More with 2D
pairs with 2D- 2D + Roguelike Deckbuilder$6,77234 launches priced, 64 releases in 12 months
- 2D + Romance$3,28176 launches priced, 110 releases in 12 months
- War + 2D$3,16035 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
- 2D + Dating Sim$2,55991 launches priced, 116 releases in 12 months
- 2D + LGBTQ+$2,46550 launches priced, 85 releases in 12 months
- 2D + Historical$2,32474 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months
More with Mystery
pairs with Mystery- Mystery + Choices Matter$6,00949 launches priced, 114 releases in 12 months
- Anime + Mystery$5,55743 launches priced, 65 releases in 12 months
- Mystery + Female Protagonist$5,30753 launches priced, 76 releases in 12 months
- Detective + Mystery$5,207106 launches priced, 184 releases in 12 months
- Cinematic + Mystery$4,60234 launches priced, 41 releases in 12 months
- Surreal + Mystery$4,52440 launches priced, 57 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
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