Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Capitalism + Incrementalabout 13 times expected at its prices14 in 100

1Capitalism + Incremental14 in 10050 launches 2Casual + Desktop Companion28 in 10047 launches 3Desktop Companion + Idler25 in 10064 launches 4Desktop Companion + Relaxing30 in 10043 launches 5Comedy + Memes10 in 10049 launches

Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens West-facing view

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Games mostly reviewed outside China: drops games with 35% or more of their reviews in Chinese. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 West-facing view 30+ launches Reset

The West-facing view lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 31 in 100. 153 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Extraction Shooter, $68,810 typical. 264 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 31 in 100. 109 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 5,529 launches. 264 match.

Hide one-hit markets40 out Hide small samples+24 if off

264 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at any price, West-facing view. 240 match the search and chips. Sorted by chance of $100k+, highest first.

FPS 1 in 12 earned $100k+, from 1,398 launches at any price, West-facing viewtypical $607 none

Open World 16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 877 launches at any price, West-facing viewtypical $2,185. Best of the pins none

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Genres at any price, West-facing view, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, West-facing viewthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 161,804 of 29,637	$606	not computed	29,637
1	Open World Survival Craft31 in 100 earned $100k+, from 107 launches	31 in 10033 hits	$21,248	not computed	107	none	Pin Open World Survival Craft
2	World War II21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 67 launches	21 in 10014 hits	$4,209	not computed	67	none	Pin World War II
3	Base Building20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 599 launches	20 in 100120 hits	$3,683	not computed	599	none	Pin Base Building
4	Desktop Companion19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 67 launches	19 in 10013 hits	$6,770	not computed	67	Audience	Pin Desktop Companion
5	Online Co-Op19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 777 launches	19 in 100148 hits	$4,451	not computed	777	none	Pin Online Co-Op
6	Co-op19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 772 launches	19 in 100146 hits	$3,936	not computed	772	none	Pin Co-op
7	Building18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 870 launches	18 in 100154 hits	$2,831	not computed	870	none	Pin Building
8	Colony Sim17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 246 launches	17 in 10043 hits	$2,630	not computed	246	none	Pin Colony Sim
9	FMV17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 121 launches	17 in 10021 hits	$4,855	not computed	121	Audience	Pin FMV
10	Mechs17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 112 launches	17 in 10019 hits	$5,153	not computed	112	none	Pin Mechs
11	Music17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 149 launches	17 in 10025 hits	$1,778	not computed	149	none	Pin Music
12	Trains16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 73 launches	16 in 10012 hits	$5,464	not computed	73	none	Pin Trains
13	Open World16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 877 launches	16 in 100142 hits	$2,185	not computed	877	none	Pinned Open World
14	Crafting16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 710 launches	16 in 100114 hits	$2,448	not computed	710	none	Pin Crafting
15	Co-op Campaign16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 88 launches	16 in 10014 hits	$2,428	not computed	88	1-hit	Pin Co-op Campaign
16	Horses16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 51 launches	16 in 1008 hits	$4,010	not computed	51	none	Pin Horses
17	Management15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,251 launches	15 in 100192 hits	$3,638	not computed	1,251	none	Pin Management
18	City Builder15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 512 launches	15 in 10078 hits	$2,225	not computed	512	Audience	Pin City Builder
19	Bullet Heaven15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 138 launches	15 in 10021 hits	$7,376	not computed	138	1-hit	Pin Bullet Heaven
20	Trading15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 152 launches	15 in 10023 hits	$5,631	not computed	152	1-hit	Pin Trading
21	Sandbox15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,352 launches	15 in 100198 hits	$1,840	not computed	1,352	none	Pin Sandbox
22	Economy15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 631 launches	15 in 10092 hits	$3,641	not computed	631	none	Pin Economy
23	Shop Keeper15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 179 launches	15 in 10026 hits	$3,683	not computed	179	none	Pin Shop Keeper
24	Metroidvania14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 406 launches	14 in 10058 hits	$3,031	not computed	406	1-hit	Pin Metroidvania
25	Job Simulator14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 126 launches	14 in 10018 hits	$8,351	not computed	126	none	Pin Job Simulator

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 240 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.