Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Genres 1 Oct
Of 263 genres with 30+ launches at any price, Without the breakout, 149 beat the 1 in 16 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 192 under $5, 42 in 100 at $20 to $40.149 of 263 genres beat the 1 in 16 base rate.149 beat the base rate.
Cohort median $606
Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.
Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.
Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewThe Without the breakout lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.
263 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Without the breakout. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.
| Rank# | Genre | Chance of $100k+ | Typical year | Top 1 in 10 | Launches | Markers | Pin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games at any price, Without the breakoutthe base rate: the row to beat | 1 in 161,804 of 29,637 | $606 | not computed | 29,637 | |||
| 1 | Spellingnone of 107 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $273 | not computed | 107 | none | Pin Spelling |
| 2 | Chessnone of 59 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $404 | not computed | 59 | none | Pin Chess |
| 3 | 6DOFnone of 56 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $364 | not computed | 56 | none | Pin 6DOF |
| 4 | Boxingnone of 52 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $809 | not computed | 52 | Audience | Pin Boxing |
| 5 | Basketballnone of 49 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $1,090 | not computed | 49 | SmallAudience | Pin Basketball |
| 6 | Submarinenone of 39 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $725 | not computed | 39 | Small | Pin Submarine |
| 7 | Mini Golfnone of 38 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $1,209 | not computed | 38 | Small | Pin Mini Golf |
| 8 | Time Attacknone of 36 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $443 | not computed | 36 | 1-hitSmall | Pin Time Attack |
| 9 | Intentionally Awkward Controlsnone of 33 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $485 | not computed | 33 | Small | Pin Intentionally Awkward Controls |
| 10 | Billiardsnone of 32 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $281 | not computed | 32 | Small | Pin Billiards |
| 11 | Solitaire1 in 210 earned $100k+, from 210 launches | 1 in 2101 hit | $303 | not computed | 210 | 1-hitAudience | Pinned Solitaire |
| 12 | Match 31 in 142 earned $100k+, from 283 launches | 1 in 1422 hits | $121 | not computed | 283 | 1-hit | Pin Match 3 |
| 13 | Trivia1 in 131 earned $100k+, from 131 launches | 1 in 1311 hit | $161 | not computed | 131 | none | Pin Trivia |
| 14 | Sokoban1 in 121 earned $100k+, from 243 launches | 1 in 1212 hits | $404 | not computed | 243 | Audience | Pin Sokoban |
| 15 | Traditional Roguelike1 in 108 earned $100k+, from 108 launches | 1 in 1081 hit | $361 | not computed | 108 | 1-hitAudience | Pin Traditional Roguelike |
| 16 | Runner1 in 95 earned $100k+, from 569 launches | 1 in 956 hits | $121 | not computed | 569 | 1-hit | Pin Runner |
| 17 | Hidden Object1 in 71 earned $100k+, from 1,766 launches | 1 in 7125 hits | $541 | not computed | 1,766 | none | Pin Hidden Object |
| 18 | 3D Fighter1 in 69 earned $100k+, from 345 launches | 1 in 695 hits | $202 | not computed | 345 | none | Pin 3D Fighter |
| 19 | Snow1 in 65 earned $100k+, from 65 launches | 1 in 651 hit | $607 | not computed | 65 | none | Pin Snow |
| 20 | Precision Platformer1 in 63 earned $100k+, from 947 launches | 1 in 6315 hits | $303 | not computed | 947 | none | Pinned Precision Platformer |
| 21 | Score Attack1 in 63 earned $100k+, from 629 launches | 1 in 6310 hits | $202 | not computed | 629 | none | Pin Score Attack |
| 22 | Aliens1 in 58 earned $100k+, from 292 launches | 1 in 585 hits | $242 | not computed | 292 | none | Pin Aliens |
| 23 | Arena Shooter1 in 54 earned $100k+, from 542 launches | 1 in 5410 hits | $252 | not computed | 542 | Audience | Pin Arena Shooter |
| 24 | Golf1 in 54 earned $100k+, from 54 launches | 1 in 541 hit | $707 | not computed | 54 | 1-hitAudience | Pin Golf |
| 25 | Combat Racing1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 196 launches | 1 in 494 hits | $405 | not computed | 196 | none | Pin Combat Racing |
Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.